Predictive Intelligence Led Operational Targeting (PILOT)
Axios
Solution types
Effectiveness

No Effect

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No Effect

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Life periods served
Where the program was applied
Country of application
Description

This is a predictive policing strategy that directs special operations to small property crime-prone locations. The objective of the program is to prevent an increase in crime.
The program consists of two types of activities:
1) Identifying on a monthly basis the areas that are most prone to property crime based on past property crime rates, juvenile arrest records, emergency calls, and seasonal variation patterns; and
2) Hiring additional police forces to conduct various police interventions in the identified areas.
Areas where there was an anticipated 40% or greater likelihood of property crime were identified as hot spots and received targeted patrolling and other strategies implemented by police officers. Monthly meetings were held to discuss and analyze data collection activities, as well as to check crime rates and maps, in order to disseminate the information collected in the field.

Impact evaluations

An impact evaluation showed that no statistical differences in property crime were found between the experimental and control districts. The authors suggest that the program may not have shown effects in part because the predictive model did not provide enough additional information over conventional analysis and because the preventive strategies tended to be vague. Further experimentation is needed to understand whether hot spot identification based on a predictive model is more effective than identification based on previous crime scenes [1].

Bibliographic reference

[1] Hunt, P., Saunders, J. & Hollywood, J. S. (2014). Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment. Santa Monica, CA. The Rand Corporation. https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248883.pdf