Text by: Rodrigo Pantoja

Criminal recidivism is a serious, costly problem that affects all societies. Criminal theories have emphasized the importance of the correction systems to deter individuals from becoming involved in crime, as well as to "re-educate" or "re-socialize" subjects who are subjected to restrictive or custodial measures.

However, scientific studies suggest that the mere application of custodial sanctions does not reduce, but rather increases the likelihood that people will continue to recidivate in antisocial behaviors when they return to their lives in their communities of origin.

Since the second half of the 20th century, the field of empirical criminology has worked intensively to solve this problem, based on longitudinal and experimental scientific studies. This line of research has led to major advances.

Today, we have reliable information on the variables, as well as on the personal and social conditions that are associated with criminal behavior.

These variables, called "risk factors" because of their correlation with the probability of future antisocial behavior, have different levels of impact on individuals in the various stages of their life cycle.

For example, longitudinal studies that have followed the development of at-risk children in the United States over 20 years suggest that the use of psychoactive substances is the one factor that offers the greatest risk of future antisocial behavior if the consumption occurs between the ages of 6 and 11. However, when usage begins at the age of 12 or older, the marginal risk of criminal behavior associated with use is significantly lower.

In the field of violence and crime prevention in childhood and adolescence, the experience of implementing "Multisystemic Therapy" in Chile stands out. This therapeutic model was adopted in 2012 as the first component of what is now known as the Ties System ("Sistema Lazos"), an integrated model of violence and crime prevention based on scientific evidence.

Multisystemic Therapy is a family intervention designed to activate the protective capacity of families, reducing adolescents' exposure to risky conditions as well as their involvement in risky behavior. This intervention is implemented selectively with adolescents who are more likely to engage in antisocial behavior. The results in Chile show that this therapeutic intervention significantly reduces the "risk factors" of the beneficiaries and, in cases of greater likelihood of antisocial behavior, significantly reduces the odds of registering new crimes.

Knowing the most relevant risk factors is important because it allows us to prioritize the most pressing care needs of the prison population.

For example, the association with antisocial peers and the prevalence of antisocial personality traits are the most relevant risk factors as predictors of recidivism in the adult population. Meanwhile, improvements in educational attainment and employability contribute moderately to reducing the risk of recidivism.

Prison treatment and social reintegration policies in Latin America tend to promote education, vocational training and access to employment as the main solutions for reducing recidivism. However, even though improving education, vocational training and access to employment are indeed necessary and important actions that contribute to the process of social integration, the problem arises when education and employment are expected to produce significant reductions in recidivism in circumstances where the contribution of these factors is only moderate.

It is recommended that the institutions that run the penitentiary system pay close attention to the findings of scientific research into the factors that predict recidivism and into the intervention methods that have been shown to be the most effective in reducing this phenomenon. For example, the application of certain types of cognitive-behavioral therapy is associated with a 12% to 25% reduction in the likelihood of recidivism. Although the effect is relatively low, treatment is generally more effective in higher risk cases. The high-risk segment of the prison population is, at the same time, often the most active group of offenders when they are in the community; as well as the group of offenders that is capable of generating a disproportionately high number of victims. Therefore, the relatively low effect on reducing the number of repeat offenders can translate into a relatively high effect in terms of victimization, due to the huge number of people who would stop being victimized due to the interruption of offending patterns.

Knowledge on relevant risk factors and effective treatment methods to reduce the likelihood of recidivism is already being implemented in Latin America. Chile began a pilot program in 2007 that achieved a 30% reduction in recidivism in the moderate and high risk prison populations. Currently, the systematic assessment of the risk of recidivism and the application of specialized treatments to motivate changes in behavior and modify risk factors are already part of national prison management policies in many countries. 

These same practices began to be applied two years ago in Uruguay's prison system and have been applied by the Secretariat of Justice of the State of Espírito Santo, in Brazil, through the program "Modernize-ES", financed by the IDB.

It is encouraging to realize that the incorporation of knowledge and technology can make prison systems more effective in increasing prisoners' opportunities for social reintegration and, in addition, in improving their ability to contribute to society as a whole while reducing the likelihood of recidivism of persons deprived of liberty.

*Rodrigo Pantoja is a senior sector specialist in Citizen Security and Justice at the IDB in Brazil